Path Map of Cyclone Asani

During the early hours of Sunday, May 8, the potent system based in the Bay of Bengal intensified into a Cyclonic Storm, effectively transforming into Cyclone Asani. From here on, it is expected to gather more strength and evolve further in the next 24 hours.
Current Wind Speed 50 knots / 58 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 50 knots / 58 MPH at May 11, 2022 5:30am

A rapid intensification
The transformation of this system into a cyclone occurred much earlier than previously expected. Initial predictions had indicated that the deep depression would not strengthen into a Cyclonic Storm until the evening hours of Sunday.

However, as per the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) latest update, the cyclone had already formed sometime around 2:30 am on Sunday.


Source-https://www.cyclocane.com/asani-storm-tracker/

Furthermore, as of 5:30 am, it was located over southeast Bay of Bengal — about 450 km west-northwest of Car Nicobar (Nicobar Islands), 380 km west of Port Blair (Andaman Islands), 970 km southeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and 1030 km south-southeast of Puri (Odisha).

Cyclone ASANI storm path from JTWC

Time Speed Location Status
May 9, 2022 5:30am 55 knots 14.0, 86.1  
May 9, 2022 5:30pm 50 knots 14.8, 85.1  
May 10, 2022 5:30am 45 knots 15.5, 84.5  
May 10, 2022 5:30pm 45 knots 16.3, 84.1  
May 11, 2022 5:30am 40 knots 17.0, 84.0  
May 12, 2022 5:30am 40 knots 18.1, 84.7  
May 13, 2022 5:30am 35 knots 20.1, 87.4 dissipating
May 14, 2022 5:30am 30 knots 22.8, 90.9 dissipated

From here on, the system will continue to move northwestwards, and gradually intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over east-central Bay of Bengal by the early hours of Monday, May 9. This is when the system is expected to be at its strongest, as it may pack wind speeds up to 60 knots (111 km per hour).

Thereafter, its northwestward movement will continue, and by Tuesday evening, Severe Cyclone Asani will reach west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal — off the coasts of North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. It is then likely to recurve north-northeastwards and move towards northwest Bay of Bengal, off the Odisha coast.

Landfall unlikely over Odisha, Andhra Pradesh
According to IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the aforementioned recurving of the system in the northeastern direction may end up sparing the states of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh from the possibility of a cyclone landfall.

In fact, he has opined that this movement may result in Cyclone Asani moving parallel to India’s eastern coast.

The Weather Channel’s met team has added that while this parallel movement continues, the system may start losing steam by Wednesday night or Thursday morning, and begin its gradual deintensification process.

Expected impact over East India
As for its impact on East India, the IMD has predicted isolated heavy rains over coastal Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh from Tuesday evening onwards, while similar conditions will engulf coastal West Bengal starting Wednesday.

The sea conditions will remain rough throughout, and therefore, the fisherfolk have been advised not to venture into the waters, especially in central Bay of Bengal from May 9-10 and northwest Bay of Bengal from May 10-12.
Source- https://weather.com/en-IN/india/news/news/2022-05-08-cyclone-asani-to-intensify-into-severe-cyclonic-storm-on-may-9

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